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Futures studies, futures research or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (colloquially called "futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futurology concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are much less proven than in natural science and like sociology and economics. There is a debate as to whether this discipline is an art or science, and it is sometimes described as pseudoscience; nevertheless, the Association of Professional Futurists was formed in 2002, developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017, and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course. To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day.
Foresight was the original term and was first used in this sense by H. G. Wells in 1932.Wells, H.G. (1932) 1987. Wanted: Professors of Foresight! Futures Research Quarterly V3N1 (Spring): p. 89-91. "Futurology" is a term common in encyclopedias, though it is used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. "Futurology" is defined as the "study of the future". The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability. This term has fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative, plausible, preferable and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures. (2025). 9780230363496, Palgrave Macmillan. ISBN 9780230363496
Three factors usually distinguish futures studies from the research conducted by other disciplines (although all of these disciplines overlap, to differing degrees). First, futures studies often examines trends to compose possible, probable, and preferable futures along with the role "wild cards" can play on future scenarios. Second, futures studies typically attempts to gain a Holism or systemics view based on insights from a range of different disciplines, generally focusing on the STEEP categories of Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political. Third, futures studies challenges and unpacks the assumptions behind dominant and contending views of the future. The future thus is not empty but fraught with hidden assumptions. For example, many people expect the collapse of the Earth's ecosystem in the near future, while others believe the current ecosystem will survive indefinitely. A foresight approach would seek to analyze and highlight the assumptions underpinning such views.
As a field, futures studies expands on the research component, by emphasizing the communication of a strategy and the actionable steps needed to implement the plan or plans leading to the preferable future. It is in this regard, that futures studies evolves from an academic exercise to a more traditional business-like practice, looking to better prepare organizations for the future.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle, or of managers or investors with short-term time horizons. Most strategic planning, which develops goals and objectives with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. Plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are definitely part of the field. Learning about medium and long-term developments may at times be observed from their early signs.Elina Hiltunen (2025). 9789526010229, Acta Universitatis oeconomicae Helsingiensis. ISBN 9789526010229 As a rule, futures studies is generally concerned with changes of transformative impact, rather than those of an incremental or narrow scope.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means.
To complete a futures study, a domain is selected for examination. The domain is the main idea of the project, or what the outcome of the project seeks to determine. Domains can have a strategic or exploratory focus and must narrow down the scope of the research. It examines what will, and more importantly, will not be discussed in the research.
Futures practitioners study trends focusing on STEEP (Social, Technological, Economic, Environments and Political) baselines. Baseline exploration examine current STEEP environments to determine normal trends, called baselines. Next, practitioners use scenarios to explore different futures outcomes. Scenarios examine how the future can be different.
1. Collapse Scenarios seek to answer: What happens if the STEEP baselines fall into ruin and no longer exist? How will that impact STEEP categories?
2. Transformation Scenarios: explore futures with the baseline of society transiting to a "new" state. How are the STEEP categories effected if society has a whole new structure?
3. New Equilibrium: examines an entire change to the structure of the domain. What happens if the baseline changes to a "new" baseline within the same structure of society?
(2025). 9780978931704, Social Technologies. ISBN 9780978931704
Advances in mathematics in the 17th century prompted attempts to calculate statistical and probabilistic concepts. Objectivity became linked to knowledge that could be expressed in numerical data. In 18th century Britain, investors established mathematical formulas to assess the future value of an asset. In 1758 the French economist François Quesnay proceeded to establish a quantitative model of the entire economy, known as the Tableau Economique, so that future production could be planned. Meanwhile, Anne Robert Jacques Turgot first articulated the law of diminishing returns. In 1793 the Chinese bureaucrat Hong Liangji forecasted future population growth. (2025). 9783030289874, Springer International Publishing. ISBN 9783030289874
The Industrial Revolution was on the verge of spreading across the European continent, when in 1798 Thomas Malthus published An essay on the principle of Population as it affects the Future Improvement of Society. Malthus questioned optimistic utopias and theories of progress. Malthus' fear about the survival of the human race is regarded as an early European dystopia. (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281 Starting in the 1830s, Auguste Comte developed theories of social evolution and claimed that metapatterns could be discerned in social change. (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281 In the 1870s Herbert Spencer blended Compte's theories with Charles Darwin's Evolution. Social Darwinism became popular in Europe and the USA. By the late 19th century, the belief in human progress and the triumph of invention prevailed and science fiction became a popular future narrative. In 1888 William Morris published News from Nowhere, in which he theorized about how working time could be reduced. (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281
With the end of World War I interest in statistical forecasting intensified. (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281 In statistics, a forecasting is a calculation of a future event's magnitude or probability. Forecasting calculates the future, while an estimate attempts to establish the value of an existing quantity. (2025). 9783030289874, Springer International Publishing. ISBN 9783030289874 In the United States, President Hoover established a Research Committee on Social Trends in 1929 headed by William F. Ogburn. Past statistics were used to chart trends and project those trends into the future. Planning became part of the political decision-making process after World War II as capitalist and communist governments across the globe produced predictive forecasts. The RAND Corporation was founded in 1945 to assist the US military with post-war planning. The long-term planning of military and industrial Cold War efforts peaked in the 1960s when peace research emerged as a counter-movement (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281 and the positivist idea of "the one predictable future" was called into question. (2025). 9780198735281, Oxford University Press. ISBN 9780198735281
Futures studies was developed as an empirical research field. Inspired by Herman Kahn's publications, future studies employed techniques such as scenario planning, game theory, and computer simulations. Historians, political scientists and sociologists who engaged in critical futures studies, such as Ossip K. Flechtheim, and Johan Galtung, laid the foundations of peace and conflict studies as an academic discipline. (2025). 9781000376081, Taylor & Francis. ISBN 9781000376081
The international academic dialogue on futures studies became institutionalized in the form of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), founded in 1967. The first doctoral program on the Study of the Future, was founded in 1969 at the University of Massachusetts by Christopher Dede and Billy Rojas. Dede also founded a master's degree program in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake. In 1976, the M.A. Program in Public Policy in Alternative Futures at the University of Hawaii at Manoa was established. (2025). 9781839474187, EDTECH. ISBN 9781839474187
The 1972 report The Limits to Growth established environmental degradation firmly on the political agenda. The environmental movement demanded of industry and policymakers to consider long-term implications when planning and investing in and infrastructure. (2025). 9783319325743, Springer International Publishing. ISBN 9783319325743
The 1990s saw a surge in futures studies in preparation for the United Nations' Millennium Development Goals, which were adopted in 2000 as international development for the year 2015. Throughout the 1990s large technology foresight programs were launched which informed national and regional strategies on science, technology and innovation. (2025). 9783319325743, Springer International Publishing. ISBN 9783319325743 Prior to the 1990s foresight was rarely used to describe future studies, futurology or forecasting. Foresight prognosis relied in part on the methodologies developed by the French pioneers of prospectives research, including Bertrand de Jouvenel. Foresight practitioners attempted to gather and evaluate evidence based insights for the future. Foresight research output focused on identifying challenges and opportunities, which was presented as intelligence at a strategic level. Practitioners tended to focus on particular companies or economic regions, while making no attempt to plan for specific problems. (2025). 9783319325743, Springer International Publishing. ISBN 9783319325743
In the 1990s several future studies practitioners attempted to synthesize a coherent framework for the futures studies research field, including Wendell Bell's two-volume work, The Foundations of Futures Studies, and Ziauddin Sardar's Rescuing all of our Futures. (2025). 9781839474187, EDTECH. ISBN 9781839474187
Futurology is sometimes described by scientists as a pseudoscience, as it often deals with speculative scenarios and long-term predictions that can be difficult to test using traditional scientific methods.
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting and foresight methods including:
However, alternative possible futures loose credibility, should they be entirely utopian or dystopian. One of those stages involves the study of emerging issues, such as , and weak signals. Megatrends are major long-term phenomena that change slowly, are often interlinked and cannot be transformed in an instant. Many corporations use futurists as part of their risk management strategy, for horizon scanning and emerging issues analysis, and to identify wild cards.A sample presentation on risk management Understanding a range of possibilities can enhance the recognition of opportunities and threats. Every successful and unsuccessful business engages in futuring to some degree—for example in research and development, innovation and market research, anticipating competitor behavior and so on.Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Springer Series: Contributions to Management Science, Heidelberg and New York, Rohrbeck, R. H.G. Gemuenden (2010) Corporate Foresight: Its Three Roles in Enhancing the Innovation Capacity of a Firm" Technological Forecasting and Social Change Role-playing is another way that possible futures can be collectively explored, as in the research lab Civilization's Waiting Room.
A weak signal can be an early indicator of coming change, and an example might also help clarify the confusion. On May 27, 2012, hundreds of people gathered for a "Take the Flour Back" demonstration at Rothamsted Research in Harpenden, UK, to oppose a publicly funded trial of genetically modified wheat. This was a weak signal for a broader shift in consumer sentiment against genetically modified foods. When Whole Foods mandated the labeling of GMOs in 2013, this non-GMO idea had already become a trend and was about to be a topic of mainstream awareness.
"Wild cards" refer to low-probability and high-impact events "that happen quickly" and "have huge sweeping consequences", and materialize too quickly for social systems to effectively respond. Elina Hiltunen notes that wild cards are not new, though they have become more prevalent. One reason for this may be the increasingly fast pace of change. Oliver Markley proposed four types of wild cards:
He posits that it is important to track the emergence of "Type II Wild Cards" that have a high probability of occurring, but low credibility that it will happen. This focus is especially important to note because it is often difficult to persuade people to accept something they do not believe is happening, until they see the wild card. An example is climate change. This hypothesis has gone from Type I (high impact and high credibility, but low probability where science was accepted and thought unlikely to happen) to Type II (high probability, high impact, but low credibility as policy makers and lobbyists push back against the science), to Type III (high probability, high impact, disputed credibility) — at least for most people: There are still some who probably will not accept the science until the Greenland ice sheet has completely melted and sea-level has risen the seven meters estimated rise.
This concept may be embedded in standard foresight projects and introduced into anticipatory decision-making activity in order to increase the ability of social groups adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business environments. Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain trend or system. Wild cards may or may not be announced by weak signals, which are incomplete and fragmented data from which relevant foresight information might be inferred. Sometimes, mistakenly, wild cards and weak signals are considered as synonyms, which they are not. differences of weak signals and wild cards One of the most often cited examples of a wild card event in recent history is 9/11. Nothing had happened in the past that could point to such a possibility and yet it had a huge impact on everyday life in the United States, from simple tasks like how to travel via airplane to deeper cultural values. Wild card events might also be natural disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina, which can force the relocation of huge populations and wipe out entire crops or completely disrupt the supply chain of many businesses. Although wild card events cannot be predicted, after they occur it is often easy to reflect back and convincingly explain why they happened.
When predicted events fail to take place, the authors of the predictions may state that misinterpretation of the "signs" and that they evidently managed to observe themselves. Marketing have increasingly started to embrace futures studies, in an effort to benefit from an increasingly competitive marketplace with fast .
Consumption trend development has changed significantly in the 19th century and throughout the 20th century because developed countries are now rules by a meritocracy, not the aristocracy. Consumers who are able to pay for a product that is available for purchase do not necessarily take into account the lifestyle choices of high income earners. Therefore trend may bubble up or trickle down. However, when it comes to the diffusion of innovation and technology adoption life cycle various tools are used. Including meme theory and tipping point. (2025). 9780749458430, Kogan Page. ISBN 9780749458430
While futures studies remains a relatively new academic tradition, numerous tertiary institutions around the world teach it. These vary from small programs, or universities with just one or two classes, to programs that offer certificates and incorporate futures studies into other degrees, (for example in planning, business, environmental studies, economics, development studies, science and technology studies). Various formal Masters-level programs exist on six continents. Finally, doctoral dissertations around the world have incorporated futures studies (see e.g. Rohrbeck, 2010;Rohrbeck, R. (2010) Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm. Dissertation. Springer, von der Gracht, 2008;von der Gracht, H. A. (2008) The future of logistics: scenarios for 2025. Dissertation. Gabler, Hines, 2012Hines, A. (2012) The Role of an Organizational Futurist in Integrating Foresight into Organizations. Dissertation. Leeds Metropolitan University). A recent survey documented approximately 50 cases of futures studies at the tertiary level.
A Futures Studies program is offered at Tamkang University, Taiwan. Futures Studies is a required course at the undergraduate level, with between three and five thousand students taking classes on an annual basis. Housed in the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies is an MA Program. Only ten students are accepted annually in the program. Associated with the program is the Journal of Futures Studies.
The longest running Future Studies program in North America was established in 1975 at the University of Houston–Clear Lake.Teaching about the Future, by Peter C. Bishop and Andy Hines, 2012 It moved to the University of Houston in 2007 and renamed the degree to Foresight. The program was established on the belief that if history is studied and taught in an academic setting, then so should the future. Its mission is to prepare professional futurists. The curriculum incorporates a blend of the essential theory, a framework and methods for doing the work, and a focus on application for clients in business, government, nonprofits, and society in general.Hines. A. (2014, September/October). A training ground for professional futurists. The Futurist, 43.
As of 2003, over 40 tertiary education establishments around the world were delivering one or more courses in futures studies. The World Futures Studies Federation WFSF Directory of Tertiary Futures Education has a comprehensive survey of global futures programs and courses. The Acceleration Studies Foundation maintains an annotated list of primary and secondary graduate futures studies programs.
A MA Program in Futures Studies has been offered at Free University of Berlin since 2010.
A MSocSc and PhD program in Futures Studies is offered at the University of Turku, Finland.
The University of Stellenbosch Business School in South Africa offers a PGDip in Future Studies as well as a MPhil in Future Studies degree.
Chinese philosopher Kang Youwei and French demographer Georges Vacher de Lapouge stressed in the late 19th century that the trend cannot proceed indefinitely on the finite surface of the globe. The trend is bound to culminate in a world empire. Kang Youwei predicted that the matter will be decided in a contest between Washington and Berlin; Vacher de Lapouge foresaw this contest as being between the United States and Russia and wagered the odds were in the United States' favour.K'ang Yu-wei, The One World Philosophy, (tr. Thompson, Lawrence G., London, 1958), pp 79–80, 85; George Vacher de Lapouge, L'Aryen: Son Rôle Social, (Nantes: 1899), chapter "L`Avenir des Aryens." Both published their futures studies before H. G. Wells introduced the science of future in his Anticipations (1901).
Four later anthropologists—Hornell Hart, Raoul Naroll, Louis Morano, and Robert Carneiro—researched the expanding imperial cycles. They reached the same conclusion that a world empire is not only pre-determined but close at hand and attempted to estimate the time of its appearance.Hornell, Hart, "The Logistic Growth of Political Areas", Social Forces, 26, (1948): 396–408; Raoul, Naroll, "Imperial Cycles and World Order", Peace Research Society, 7, (1967): 83–101; Louis A., Marano, "A Macrohistoric Trend Towards World Government", Behavior Science Notes, 8, (1973): 35–40; Robert Carneiro, "Political Expansion as an Expression of the Principle of Competitive Exclusion", Studying War: Anthropological Perspective, eds. Reyna, Stephen P. & Dawns, Richard Erskine, Gordon and Breach, New Hampshire, 1994; Robert Carneiro, "The Political Unification of the World", Cross Cultural Survey, 38/2, (2004), 162–177.
By the early 2000s, educators began to independently institute futures studies (sometimes referred to as futures thinking) lessons in K-12 classroom environments. To meet the need, non-profit futures organizations designed curriculum plans to supply educators with materials on the topic. Many of the curriculum plans were developed to meet common core standards. Futures studies education methods for youth typically include age-appropriate collaborative activities, games, systems thinking and scenario building exercises.
There are several organizations devoted to furthering the advancement of Foresight and Future Studies worldwide. Teach the Future emphasizes foresight educational practices appropriate for K-12 schools. Warmer Sun Education is a global online learning community for K-12 students and their parents to learn about exponential progress, emerging technologies and their applications and exploring possible pathways to solve humanity's grand challenges. The University of Houston has a Master's (MS) level graduate program through the College of Technology as well as a certificate program for those interested in advanced studies. The Department of Political Science and College of Social Sciences at the University of Hawaii Manoa has the Hawaii Research Center for Future Studies which offers a Master's (MA) in addition to a Doctorate (PhD).
Brian David Johnson is a futurist and author who uses science fiction to help build the future. He has been a futurist at Intel, and is now the resident futurist at Arizona State University. "His work is called 'future casting'—using ethnographic field studies, technology research, trend data, and even science fiction to create a pragmatic vision of consumers and computing." Brian David Johnson has developed a practical guide to using science fiction as a tool for futures studies. Science fiction prototyping combines the past with the present, including interviews with notable science fiction authors to provide the tools needed to "design the future with science fiction."
Science Fiction Prototyping has five parts:
"A full Science Fiction Prototyping (SFP) is 6–12 pages long, with a popular structure being; an introduction, background work, the fictional story (the bulk of the SFP), a short summary and a summary (reflection). Most often science fiction prototypes extrapolate current science forward and, therefore, include a set of references at the end."
Ian Miles reviews The New Encyclopedia of Science Fiction, identifying ways Science Fiction and Futures Studies "cross-fertilize, as well as the ways in which they differ distinctly." Science Fiction cannot be simply considered fictionalized Futures Studies. It may have aims other than foresight or "prediction, and be no more concerned with shaping the future than any other genre of literature."Fiction and forecasting. Ian Miles. (1990) Futures, 22 (1), pp. 83–91 It is not to be understood as an explicit pillar of futures studies, due to its inconsistency of integrated futures research. Additionally, Dennis Livingston, a literature and Futures journal critic says, "The depiction of truly alternative societies has not been one of science fiction's strong points, especially" preferred, normative envisages.Science Fiction Survey. Dennis Livingston. Futures, Volume 4, Issue 1, March 1972, Pages 97–98 The strengths of the genre as a form of futurist thinking are discussed by Tom Lombardo, who argues that select science fiction "combines a highly detailed and concrete level of realism with theoretical speculation on the future", "addresses all the main dimensions of the future and synthesizes all these dimensions into integrative visions of the future", and "reflects contemporary and futurist thinking", therefore it "can be viewed as the mythology of the future."
It is notable that although there are no hard limits on horizons in future studies and foresight efforts, typical future horizons explored are within the realm of the practical and do not span more than a few decades. Nevertheless, there are hard science fiction works that can be applicable as visioning exercises that span longer periods of time when the topic is of a significant time scale, such as is in the case of Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars trilogy, which deals with the terraforming of Mars and extends two centuries forward through the early 23rd century. In fact, there is some overlap between science fiction writers and professional futurists such as in the case of David Brin. Arguably, the work of science fiction authors has seeded many ideas that have later been developed (be it technological or social in nature)—from early works of Jules Verne and H.G. Wells to the later Arthur C. Clarke and William Gibson. Beyond literary works, futures studies and futurists have influenced film and TV works. The 2002 movie adaptation of Philip K. Dick's short story, Minority Report, had a group of consultants to build a realistic vision of the future, including futurist Peter Schwartz. TV shows such as HBO's Westworld and Channel 4/Netflix's Black Mirror follow many of the rules of futures studies to build the world, the scenery and storytelling in a way futurists would in experiential scenarios and works.
Science Fiction novels for Futurists:
The Singapore government's Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is part of the Strategy Group within the Prime Minister's Office. Their mission is to position the Singapore government to navigate emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities. Singapore's early formal efforts in strategic foresight began in 1991 with the establishment of the Risk Detection and Scenario Planning Office in the Ministry of Defence. In addition to the CSF, the Singapore government has established the Strategic Futures Network, which brings together deputy secretary-level officers and foresight units across the government to discuss emerging trends that may have implications for Singapore.
Since the 1990s, Finland has integrated strategic foresight within the parliament and Prime Minister's Office. (2025). 9781786350565, Emerald Group Publishing Limited. ISBN 9781786350565 The government is required to present a "Report of the Future" each parliamentary term for review by the parliamentary Committee for the Future. Led by the Prime Minister's Office, the Government Foresight Group coordinates the government's foresight efforts. Futures research is supported by the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (established in 1980), the Finland Futures Research Centre (established in 1992), and the Finland Futures Academy (established in 1998) in coordination with foresight units in various government agencies.
In the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, announced in September 2016 that all government ministries were to appoint Directors of Future Planning. Sheikh Mohammed described the UAE Strategy for the Future as an "integrated strategy to forecast our nation's future, aiming to anticipate challenges and seize opportunities". The Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and Future (MOCAF) is mandated with crafting the UAE Strategy for the Future and is responsible for the portfolio of the future of UAE. Since 2002, the UAE has hosted the Dubai Future Forum at the Museum of the Future, which it claims is the largest gathering of futurists in the world.
In 2018, the United States General Accountability Office (GAO) created the Center for Strategic Foresight to enhance its ability to "serve as the agency's principal hub for identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policymakers." The center is composed of non-resident Fellows who are considered leading experts in foresight, planning and future thinking. In September 2019 they hosted a conference on space policy and "deep fake" synthetic media to manipulate online and real-world interactions.
Risks may arise from the development and adoption of emerging technologies and/or social change. Special interest lies on hypothetical future events that have the potential to damage human well-being on a global scale posing a global catastrophic risk. Such events may cripple or destroy Modernity or, in the case of existential risks, even cause human extinction. Potential global catastrophic risks include but are not limited to climate change, AI takeover, nanotechnology, nuclear warfare, total war, and . The aim of a professional futurist would be to identify conditions that could lead to these events to create "pragmatically feasible roads to alternative futures."
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